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canada goose uk shop As the nation and its political parties gear up for eight state elections this year, canada goose outlet uk sale and subsequently prepare for the general elections, the upcoming Budget 2018 assumes a high significance. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s fifth Budget is expected to be rural focussed with over spending on rural canada goose jacket outlet uk infra, agriculture and job schemes, Vinod Nair, Head Of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said in an exclusive interview with Moneycontrol’s Kshitij Anand. canada goose uk shop

Q) The year 2018 started on a bullish note after a blockbuster 2017. canada goose outlet toronto The Nifty is already knocking on the doors of 11,000. Do you think the rally would continue till Budget?

Canada Goose sale The current rally is a result of strength in global macros, the expectation of strong revival in earnings led by Q3 results and Union Budget wishlists. Canada Goose sale

canada goose coats on sale Q) The macro picture is fast deteriorating at least it is not as attractive as it was back in the year 2016 2017. Do you think the hope based rally could push the index towards record highs? canada goose coats on sale

canada goose uk outlet The macro had deteriorated in the calendar year 2017 due to the impact of demonetisation and implementation of the canada goose outlet uk GoodsandServices Tax (GST). As a result, the risk to fiscal slippage canada goose uk site increased leading to hiking in bond yield. canada goose uk outlet

This is likely to impact in the short to medium term, but GDP is expected to improve from Q3 FY18 onwards. For canada goose clothing uk example, the recent cut in GDP by CSO did not impact the market because it was a conservative forecast while the economy is trending for a QoQ growth.

Earnings growth for Q3 is likely to be in a range of 15 to 20 percent on a year on year (YoY) basis which is likely to be extended to FY19.

The market rally in 2018 is based more on reality than hope but the ongoing rally in the market can take a breather before seeing canada goose jacket outlet store the eventful outcome of Q3 and the Budget. For the full year, we have a moderate outlook for the canada goose outlet online uk main indexes, but a positive outlook on the canada goose outlet washington dc broad market.

canada goose uk black friday Q) What are your expectations from Budget from markets points of canada goose outlet boston view? Do you think LTCG could become a reality in Budget 2018? canada goose uk black friday

Canada Goose online The expectation from this Bbudget may be lesser than what market had over the last 2 3 years. This time the most important expectation is to have canada goose outlet winnipeg address a good balance canada goose outlet michigan between fiscal and growth. Canada Goose online

Canada Goose Jackets By not getting overwhelmed canada goose outlet us by the rural segment but to continue with reforms and growth oriented initiatives. Having completed the canada goose factory outlet vancouver reform over the indirect taxes, we can expect the government to canada goose outlet toronto location shift the focus to direct tax. Canada Goose Jackets

The government had canada goose outlet mississauga earlier suggested cutting the corporate tax rate to 25 percent in the Union Budget of canada goose jacket outlet sale 2015 16 and therefore we can expect some initial implementation this time.

However, given that GST implementation is not completely over, canada goose outlet orlando any action on this behalf will depend on the government’s canada goose outlet 2015 confidence in the fiscal management.

canada goose black friday sale There are expectations to cut GST rate in food and non food items but this is unlikely to be addressed in this budget since it has to be processed under the GST Council. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose store LTCG will be introduced in India for sure as a reform over direct taxation but whether it will be introduced in the next Budget is a matter of pondering. canada goose store

Q) Expectations are high from the canada goose outlet government about a likely package for the agricultural sectors to boost rural income. What are your expectations from the Budget from agri sector and what stocks are likely to benefit the most?

uk canada goose This is the fourth budget before the upcoming 8 state elections and general elections thereafter. The budget is expected to have a rural focus with over spending on rural infra, agriculture, and job schemes. uk canada goose

The risk is to canada goose outlet london uk have overwhelming benefits due to a reduction in poll confidence, primarily on account of difficulties caused by demonetisation and GST. The other risk get generated to fiscal slippage, higher government papers, and interest rates.

cheap canada goose uk The market is very curious to see whether the government canada goose outlet ottawa will be able to manage the fiscal target of 3.2 percent and 3 percent for 2018 and 2019. cheap canada goose uk

The government’s 10 year yield has risen by canada goose jacket outlet 93 bps over the lastsix months to 7.38 percent. Specific measures will be towards remunerative prices on agri, credit benefits, agri infrastructure like irrigation, social security to farmers, reduction in GST and fertilisers. Stocks under our coverage which may benefit are PI Industries and UPL.

Q) Do you see bubble valuation in any sector and if yes in which sector and why?

cheap Canada Goose Currently, we feel that valuation for consumer discretionary and consumer durables is trading near its peak. Over the last 2 5 years valuation has expanded from a range of 20x 30x P/E to the historical peak of 40x. cheap Canada Goose

Canada Goose Parka This was supported by strong earnings momentum in this sector led by raising urban population, higher per capita income, expanding consumer base and increasing affordability due to easy finance. Canada Goose Parka

canada goose clearance Additionally, the valuation has further boosted by the canada goose kensington parka uk expectation of a shift from informal to the formal segment with the advent of the canada goose outlet store uk Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017. canada goose clearance

Q) Valuations of small and midcap stocks are already trading at a hefty premium. Do you see the party continuing in this space and what is the kind of strategy which investors should adopt?

The valuation of small and midcap are high but may not be at canada goose outlet buffalo a high premium. Actually, the whole market is trading at a high valuation. The Nifty50 is currently valued at P/E of 21 times on a one year forward basis while Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 is valued at 22 23 times.

buy canada goose jacket Valuation has expanded as market risk reduced, economic confidence increased, a turnaround in businesses and higher liquidity and earnings growth. buy canada goose jacket

buy canada goose jacket cheap The broad trend in the canada goose outlet factory market will be maintained as the risk appetite in maintained. In the very short term it will be fair to turn cautious and shift to defensive stocks and sectors like IT, Pharma, Telecom, FMCG and export oriented companies as a safer best. buy canada goose jacket cheap

Q) Brent has already touched $70/bbl. What could be the repercussion for the market as well as for the economy.

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